Food Demand & Climate Change

Have you noticed the food headlines (e.g. here and here) of late? A new study published by engineers, plant scientists, and food specialists from the Universities of Cambridge and Aberdeen used a transparent, data-driven model to demonstrate that projected food demand will drive agricultural expansion, contributing to critical environmental issues such as the loss of biodiversity, climate change and pollution. The authors, Bajželj et al. (2014), warn that it is absolutely essential to find ways to achieve food security without promoting the negative side effects of agricultural expansion and increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Cattle livestock. Source: The Guardian (2014)

Bajželj et al. (2014)'s study aimed to estimate the environmental implications of the projected increase in food demand by 2050. They were also interested in quantifying the extent to which measures including sustainable intensification and demand reduction could reverse these negative effects. The authors' approach was to use a model of the current global land system based on emprical data, with 2009 as a base year. The model included 2 main components, namely an analysis of land distribution leading to the allocation of land-use change, natural ecosystem losses, and GHG emissions, and a map of agricultural biomass flows. Based on their analyses, the authors concluded that an increased demand for inefficient pathways of food supply such as livestock products causes the food production system to become larger and increasingly inefficient. 

The authors then went on to investigate 6 future scenarios based on agricultural intensification, waste reduction and dietary preferences. Their results indicated that increases in agricultural expansion and agriculture-related GHG emissions were only prevented when significant elements of demand reduction were included. Bajželj et al. (2014) suggest the reduction of meat consumption and an overall improvement of diet as potential solutions to avoid reaching dangerous levels of climate change.

We touched on meat consumption in previous posts (e.g. here and here), and saw that demand for animal products has been increasing in recent decades. Based on the evidence presented in scientific studies such as the one described above, would you be willing to decrease your intake of livestock products to take action on climate change? I, for one, am certainly convinced!

I'd love to hear your thoughts on meat consumption and climate change, or any aspect of the food production system at all. Feel free to share in the comments section below.